Forcing Removal Control. It trails the other black decks (53.2% over 12,745 games against Goblin Army 57.6% over 85,459 games, Ferocious Wolves 56.9% over 57,277 games and Removal Midrange 56.8% over 4,805 games). Start with black's and take the second color the packs give you.
Drafting Draw Two's blue cards as if they work the same here. Lakeshore Apothecary (52.7% here, 58.7% in Draw Two), Master's Councillors and Ravenhill Flock reward many extra draws, and this deck has fewer of them. Take removal and creatures that block well instead.
Playing black's aggressive cards in a deck that wants to block. Gollum the Abandoned can't block, Dreaded Bat-Cloud's discount needs a creature to die that turn, and Nighthowl Pursuer's bonus needs a creature with 4 or more power. This deck rarely has one, so Nighthowl drops from 60.1% in Goblin Army to 55.2% here.
Too few creatures. A deck full of removal and card draw still needs 15–17 creatures to block early and to finish the game. Count a as half a creature at most. If you're short in pack 3, take Front Porch Sentries or Patient Instructor over another draw spell.
Wasting recruit and discards. While you still need land drops, keep the lands and throw away a spell, which on a recruit also gets you the Soldier. Once you have five or six lands, the extra lands go. Never discard removal to make a token.
Misreading the . Six of the deck's cards are : Bilbo, Luckwearer; Bilbo Baggins, Burglar; Gollum, Silent Slinker; Thranduil, Sindarin Liege; Thrór's Map and Gollum the Abandoned. You can't keep two with the same name on the battlefield, so a second copy is much weaker. Different names are fine, so both Bilbos can be on the battlefield at the same time.
Cardsplain