Drawing on the wrong turn. Payoffs trigger on your second card of a turn, and on the opponent's turn you start counting from zero. Plunder the Trollshaws cast from your hand at their end step is only your first card on their turn and triggers nothing. Cast it in your own main phase after your draw step instead. Hold it for their turn only when you want the mana open anyway (Settle the Wreckage, Stone by Sunlight).
Too many draw spells, too few creatures. Drawing does nothing without bodies to grow and attack with. Aim for 15 or more creatures. Soldier from are a bonus and don't count toward that number. In pack 3, take the creature over Confusticate and Bebother or Sound the Trumpets.
Discarding the wrong card to recruit. Only a nonland discard makes the 1/1 Soldier, so early on discard a spell you can still use from the : Plunder the Trollshaws () or Eagle's Rescue (it returns itself). Discard a land once you have enough lands to cast everything in your hand, and accept that you get no token.
Ignoring the . Bard the Bowman, The Queen of Dale, Fíli the Pathfinder, Bilbo, Luckwearer and many other cards here are . Two with the same name can't stay on the battlefield, so a second copy is worth much less than a different good card. The three Bilbos have different names and can all be out together: Bilbo, Luckwearer; Bilbo, Thief in the Night; and Bilbo Baggins, Burglar.
Taking the clunky because the deck likes flying. Ravenhill Flock, Eagle of the Great Shelf and The Lord of the Eagles all have low win rates here. The flying cards that do well also draw (Long Lake Nuisance) or come back from the graveyard (Eagle's Rescue).
Cardsplain