The fine print
Card one and card two. If you drew a card before your draw step, the draw-step card isn't card one. On the opponent's turn, a plus Plunder the Trollshaws cast in response also gets you two draws. Bard, King of Dale turns every draw except your draw step's card into two, so with it out, one recruit on the opponent's turn draws cards one and two.
Late arrivals. The count includes cards drawn before the payoff was on the battlefield. Cast Lakeshore Apothecary after your draw step and the next card you draw triggers it. Cast it after you already drew card two and it can't trigger that turn, so play it before Patient Instructor, not after.
Only draws count. Riddles in the Dark puts a pile into your hand without drawing, so it triggers nothing. Bilbo, Luckwearer's hit is a draw, but it is not recruit, so a nonland discard makes no Soldier.
Recruit in order. The draw, the discard and the Soldier (if the discard wasn't a land) all happen while recruit . The second-card trigger waits until recruit is done, so Bard the Bowman can put its +1/+1 counter on the Soldier that recruit made, and Master's Councillors already sees the discarded card in your .
. A Saga gets its next as your first main phase begins, after your draw step. A chapter that draws (Old Fat Spider Can't See Me's III and IV) or returns a creature that recruits (The Mountain-king's Return's II) gives you card two before combat, in time for Lake-town Toymaker.
